Summer Box Office: Big Misses so Far Put Pressure on Studios For Future Hits
Key Takeaways
- Movie ticket sales are up 20% in the first half compared to the same timeframe last year
- Ticket sales are still down 21% overall from four years ago as showbiz tries to crawl its way back to its pre-pandemic heights
- The box office needs some anticipated hits to really deliver for the second half to shore up entertainment earnings
Once upon a time in Hollywood, summer was the season of blockbuster hits. But times have changed and so has the entertainment landscape. The rise of streaming platforms, the lingering impact of Covid on live entertainment, and the difficulty of predicting the whims of moviegoers who have never had more options are all complicating factors.
While we’re seeing ticket sales climb higher than last year, it’s still a wild time in entertainment. We get into it below.
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A summer of hits and flops
So far this summer, The Flash and Indiana Jones — both big budget films — have fallen short of expectations. The Flash, a superhero fan favorite out from Warner Bros. Pictures in June, was projected to gross between $70 and $75 million in its first three days. The film fell short, grossing just $55 million in that timeframe.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, the final installment of the legendary series produced by Walt Disney Pictures and Lucasfilm Ltd., grossed about $130 million worldwide on its 3-day opening. Tepid results for a film that cost a reported $300 million to make.
Moviemakers, moviegoers, and investors alike have high hopes for the rest of the summer roster. Barbie, a Warner Bros. film directed by Greta Gerwig comes out on July 21st. Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, out from Universal, has the same release date (though notably darker subject matter).
The two distinct, high-profile movies coming out on the same day has inspired memes and internet dialogue about Barbenheimer, or watching Barbie and Oppenheimer in theaters back-to-back for a high-contrast entertainment experience.
We’ll see if this viral concept translates to higher-than-expected ticket sales. Right now, projections for Barbie hover between $80 and $100 million at opening while Oppenheimer is tracking toward $40-$50 million.
But what does this mean for the companies making and distributing the films, and, critically, for shareholders?
How is Wall Street reacting to show biz?
Disney shares have fallen below $90 again — just above the company’s nine-year low. Growth might be stalling on the Disney+ streaming performance and attendance is down at the theme parks.
Add to that the relatively modest performance of Disney’s theater releases, like the aforementioned Indiana Jones, and it does seem the entertainment behemoth is experiencing a challenging moment. However, some analysts remain bullish on Disney longer-term, citing a diverse portfolio working well together.
Warner Bros. has also faced its share of struggles. Losses on those high-budget movies and lingering debt following the recent merger of Warner Media and Discovery has hurt stock performance overall.
The bottom line
For big names like Disney and Warner Bros, losses in one area of entertainment don’t necessarily mean losses across the board.
Also: Don’t count out unexpected players in the movie space. Remember those high projections for the Barbie movie? Some analysts are predicting that Mattel, famously the original maker of all things Barbie, might get a bump.
Mattel didn’t fund production for the film, but has intentions of becoming “an IP-driven toy business” with more films in the pipeline.
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